Update the latest COVID19 outbreak data released by Manitoba officials, and provide a brief analysis based on the data. The text in green indicates that the analysis is headed for the good and the text in red indicates that the analysis is headed for the bad.

Daily basic data updates(up to April 16 2020)

Date: 2020-04-14Province: Manitoba
Cumulative Cases: 250New Cases Today: 4
Recovered :121Recovery Rate: 48.4%
Total Tested:18349New Test Today: 449
ConfirmRateToday: 0.531%TotalConfirmRate:1.36%

Recovery Rate: Number of people recovering / cumulative number of infections, representing what proportion of patients diagnosed to date have recovered. If it is higher than the overall Canadian recovery rate on that day, it is indicated in green. If lower than Canada’s overall recovery rate is indicated in red. Canada’s overall recovery rate today is 28%.

ConfirmRateToday Average confirmed rate in the last three days: average number of confirmed in the last three days / average number of tested in the last three days. This data represents what proportion of the population that has been tested recently has a confirmed diagnosis. If it is lower than TotalConfirmRate, it is indicated in green. Otherwise indicated in red.

TotalConfirmRate: Overall confirmation rate since March 15. The calculation is as above.

The trend graph of cumulative confirmed cases represents the trend of the epidemic as judged by the number of confirmed cases. A flat curve indicates a trend to the good and a steep curve indicates a trend to the bad.” Flattening the Curve” is our most important goal. It is also our primary indicator of how the epidemic is progressing.

As it stands, the Manitoba curve is in a steady state, a good sign.

New case statistics give a more visual view of the increase in cases. The new cases counted here are based on the date of publication of the official Manitoba statistics and differ slightly from the actual date of addition (e.g., Friday’s addition is the number of cases confirmed on Thursday), but do not affect the overall trend.

From current data, Manitoba’s daily new case data is generally declining.

This is a data-processed daily trend of new confirmed cases, using the average of new confirmed cases over the past three days as the data for new confirmed cases on that day. You can see more visually the trend of new cases added daily. A significant decrease in the number of new confirmed diagnoses can be seen relative to the first week of April. We also need to look at how the epidemic develops over the next weeks to give further judgement.

The average of the number of tests tested over the last three days was used as the data for the new tests added on that day. Compared to the first week of April, the number of tests has declined overall in the last two weeks.

The confirmation rate is the number of confirmations as a proportion of the number of tests. The rate of confirmatory testing can partially exclude the impact of testing capacity to see the trend towards confirmatory testing. The data also show an overall downward trend in the rate of confirmed tests.

The overall number of people tested in Manitoba as of today is 17,902. The number of people tested per 1,000 is approximately 13. Compared to Canada as a whole, the number of tests per 1,000 people is approximately 11. Manitoba has more tests per capita than Canada overall.

Data sources:

(1) Manitoba COVID19 official website https://www.gov.mb.ca/covid19/index.html (2) Canadian COVID19 official website https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html (3) CBC Manitoba https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba

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Analysis by Eric Qian